North Korea this week came to South Korea. They held wide ranging talks to end the war that has been on pause since 1953. That pause being only 64 years old is just shy of applying of old age pensions. The question is why now? The answer is not rocket science. The American right wing thinks it is all due to Donald Trump and his so called diplomacy. To my chagrin, I am going to somewhat agree with that. So 6 months ago, you had a war of words between North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un and President Donald Trump. The result was an escalation in the nuclear testing of both rockets and weapon design. This is where you have problems occurring in three ways, the Bomb, the missile and testing. You need a bomb you can toss at the other guy that will hit him where you aim. Well sort of, it’s a big bomb so anywhere close to the target within miles is close enough. Problem is… The North Koreans could not do it. Sure, they have the bomb, sort of. They have the missile and it could be tossed somewhere. But where will it hit? So what are the issues? The bomb itself was not that hard to make. Hint, it really is not all that hard to make, the physics is well know and Pakistan has been selling the secrets to anyone who wanted them. Most countries already have them or don’t want them except North Korea. So they have a great big bomb that remained, great and big, when they need to fit it small and powerful in a small missile that could fly half way across the world. They could not make it small enough to fit a missile. The missile they had was good at short range; basically if you have the capability to make a missile you can hit things in the short range. Things like wind and weather won’t be that much of a factor over the short term but medium and long term; you need to be able to guide the missile or to have it self guided. That is a lot harder. It was something they never managed to create thus far. But there is a solution to both problems. It involves testing. And here is the third problem. The test site, a mountain, is too fragile and is in danger of collapsing in on itself, releasing all the trapped radiation that was released in previous testing. Which would create a bigger mess then anything seen thus far? Picture Chernobyl, Three Mile Island and Fukushima all rolled into one and multiplied a thousand times. New York State and North Korea are about the same size in land so that sort of release of nuclear radiation from further testing would be insane.
Twitter wars
With the escalation from comments by both leaders, Trump and Kim, the world took a collective pause to change underwear. This is not two school yard bullies going at it. But two nuclear armed nations about to square off. So, the rest of the world did something because nuclear war is not something anyone wants. They hammered North Korea with sanctions. This is not something new. They have been hammered before and with the assistance of China, they can make it through the winter. Only this time, it was not in the interests of China to have a nuclear war on their door steps, or a mountain collapse and release tonnes of radiation on their door step either. So China stepped up its enforcement of sanctions. That left only Russia to smuggle good into Korea and they could do so only occasionally. Enough to get Kim some luxuries but not enough to feed the people, the way the trains coming from China had supplied North Korea in the past.
So North Korea could not improve or finish their weapons program. The world was strangling North Korea over the real possibility of war that even China was afraid. Lastly, you had Donald Trump challenging them and making them lose face with his nasty comments. When you are this far in the hole, stop digging. And that is exactly what Kim did. He made a third step. Peace with South Korea, always a big step, end nuclear weapons research and give up weapons. Keep in mind, big brother China has guaranteed the border of North Korea for the last 64 years, continuing to do so in future and the mass of conventional arms pointed at the south are still there. With the nukes gone, the testing stopped, the sanctions go away, trade opens with both China and South Korea and the rest of the world. Thus Kim gets to run his fiefdom for as long as he can, and the world goes back to ignoring him. And gasp we can all thank Small Hand Donald.
Say what?
Yes, The president of United States.
What exactly did he do? Nothing. Except the pesky thing of doing what he normally does. He shot his mouth off on Twitter. He attacked Kim on Twitter. And that is all. See Ronald Reagan won the cold war not by fighting, not by diplomacy. Reagan beat the Russians by upping the ante. By bringing the USA military to the table dumping trillions of dollars on the table and saying to the USSR keep up with us. Which, of course, they could not, but they tried and bankrupted the country trying. “Mr Gorbachev tear this wall down,” on June 12, 1987, was nothing more than a taunt to the USSR, but with its weak economy another round of industrial building and sacrifice for another 50 years was unattainable for such a small economy of the USSR. The cowboy diplomacy had worked. The same thing is happening with North Korea. Only instead of cowboy diplomacy, call it Twitter Diplomacy. The North tried to be ready to fight this war with the USA and the world, and if the science had been there, the technology had been there and that stupid mountain had not gone all weak and threatening to collapse, things would have been different. If the world had not been afraid of two nuclear armed psychopaths, hands itching on a button and arguing who has the bigger hands, err buttons, to launch those nukes then they would not have dropped such harsh sanctions in such urgent speed. And lastly, if China has not been afraid of all of the above, the mountain, the idiots playing with their nukes and just how unstable the two of them are, they would not have turned on North Korea and stopped supplying them with needed materials. These sequences of failures are what brought Kim to the table.
Thank Donald J. Trump. Not for what he did, not for doing anything great, not for anything else but being himself, the spoiled brat, psychopath that he is, that we know and love, that scared the rest of the world into motion on what his next unpredictable reaction to this conflict would mean for the rest of the world. That scared Kim into pushing his nuclear program beyond what he could sustain and that silly old mountain that had its gut blown out and became unstable enough to collapse.