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Ukraine Part 3

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When the war broke out, the two sides were not even close to being equal. In terms of machines, tanks, APC, Artillery, the Russians has a ten to one advantage. Now, the Russians have no machines to use and are sending in men on horses. Shades of war long ago. The Ukes have a problem with this as they really do not like killing innocent horses. So, instead, they drop munitions nearby to scare the horse and hopefully unseat the rider. Once separated, they then target the man and let the horse run free to be collected later by one side or the other.

There are no replacements coming in from outside as no one will sell to Russia and inside they do not have enough parts to make new ones. They used to be able to refurbish the battle damaged but now even that is too hard.

You may have heard about the death of two pilots when their ejector seat malfunctioned and triggered while stationed inside a hanger. The explosion sent both men through the roof, killing them on contact. The equipment is not designed for sustained combat like they are using it for. What they can repair is iffy at best. At worst, deadly.

Manpower. Russi has so many men under arms, so many troops and so many solders that in just sheer numbers they should have won. Well, they might be. Any battle where the causalties are under four to one, better five to one: for ever one Uke hurt or killed, they had better have killed or injured four or five Russians.

Even the Chechens are running out of men to send. Remember this blood bath from a few years ago? Well anyone who could fight was drafted into this war effort and like the rest of Russia, they are tapped out of anyone more to send.

On the opposite side, the Uke have equipment funneling in from Europe and NATO. They have better tech and better intelligence. Many a times, you have manufacturers onside offering to test this system or that bomb for free, all in service of winning the war but they want to get as much information as they can to better the weapons system or use it for selling to other Western governments. Right now, they are using drones and bots to guard from the sky and on the ground. Using heat seeing and inferred veiwing, the machines are killing Russians who enter their killing field. It is entirely possible that many a man from Russia having entered into the machine’s kill range are dying without knowing their killer is nothing but a bot.

Europe and USA emptied out all their old hardware in droves and shipped it to Ukraine. Now with no strategic reserves left, they are ramping up their war effort in factories all over the west to get their strategic reserves back up to normal and send even more to Ukraine.

Ukes are not getting replacements in the numbers they need but they are not losing as many men either. What trickles in from the West are men and women there to take up arms to defend Ukraine. They are committed to the cause unlike Russia who send mercenaries and prisoners to die at the front.

As the war drags on, there is a stalemate on the front line. Russia will attack with overwhelming men. One battle, had 170 000 men on the Russian side, heading towards a line held by less than 10K! So the Ukes retreat until more troops arrive. The other weapons systems, from artillery to drones to jets make Russia pay for every step they take. But with the willingness to slaughter a generation, they keep sending men forward and the Uke keep killing them. They are getting very good at killing them.

Demographics will take 100 years or longer to repair the damage done in 4 years of war to the male population. Russia’s population is 143 million people. NATO combined has a billion people including 40 million Ukes. Something like a seven to one advanatage in just simple population. Was injuries and death will only effect the Ukes and the rest of the NATO countries can keep doing what they have been doing before, during and after this war is over.

Economics, the economy may be so damaged that it may not recover. Post war, there will be no men to work so they have to import men from other countries. The women will naturally marry what is available, not bother to try to find a suitable Russian male as there are none. So they try to sell oil but no money for capital to repair the many step process before it gets to the port, let alone to a new market. People will have looked for other suppliers to get their oil and might be reluctant to seek a new arrangement at Russia is unreliable.

Government spending and borrowing to feed the war effort may take generations before they can lower taxes to anythung pre war. And even then that is iffy.

You may have seen the recent attack on Kyve using hypersonic weapons. This was seen as a warning to the west. Yes, ya sure. I often take a sledge hammer to hit a peanut. The Ukes have nothing that would stop such a weapon. The Americans might but they are not speaking about it. You use such weapons for a reason not to send anyone a message. Their use was a simple message, not of strength but of weakness and how little there is left to fight with. Russia did not use such a weapon to say watch out, they used it because the stock of bombs was gone and all they had left was this.

Ukraine

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Talking about the economy. The numbers are scary in Russia.

The people withdrew in 2025 from savings 1 trillion rubles from banks.
Which makes no sense to me, so how can that number make sense to anyone else. In USD, it’s about 340 billion dollars American. Which seems to me to be a lot. Another way to compare would be with the total government budget. Well, what the government says is its budget. They budgeted 340 billion rubles for the year 2025 according to Wiki. Is that because they need the extra cash, or because they no longer trust their money in banks?

In terms of assets, one of the largest Russian banks has assets of a little over 50 trillion rubles. But two things to keep in mind, how much of that money is frozen in foreign assets, and how much is locked up in loans. Our next topic. The Russian banking system is under stress. The government pressured the banks to loan money to industries that supplies weapons and armour for the war effort. Those companies in turn are paid for by the Russian government contracts. So, see if you spot the problem, The government gives banks money to give to arms industry, then pays the arms industry to make weapons. So, who is doing what again? Or is it simpler to see the money comes from the government on both ends? The government has to find that money somewhere. And it is not from imports or exports. Sanctions.

How bad is it? Let’s talk gas.
Both the USA and Russia export oil and gas. The price of gas in the USA is lower than in Russia. Not by a lot, mind you, within a range of 10 cents to 25 cents per unit. So not a great difference. Except, the USA pays in American dollars, where Russians pay in paper money called rubles. Oh, and one other thing, The average American income is about 7–8 times what the average Russian makes. Yet they pay the same price for gas?

In terms of industry, the Russian Education department has created a new program for students. You can get high school credit for working in military arms factories. In fact, you can just start working now, and forgo the whole book learning. Just work in the industry and forget the need to read or write. You can start your new factory career at the ripe old age of 12. And in 5 years you can get your high school degree. And a real one, not some fake thing. Issued by the state. Verified by the state.
Why?
The simple answer, you do not need to read or write if your life span will end at 18 in a Ukrainian ditch somewhere.
Russians don’t have enough people to work in factories any more, all excess workers drained to the front line. So they are brining them out of class to work for so many years before they join the military and sadly end up dead. Russia has a legal rule for military. If you volunteer, very stupid of you, you can be sent anywhere in the world to fight and die for the motherland. If you are drafted, and all males at the age of 18 are, you cannot be sent outside of Russia. Isn’t that safe? Well no. Russia lost territory to Ukraine a few years ago. So all draftees are sent to fight in that area. And according to Uke Intelligence, captured draftees are sent anywhere the government wants along the front line regardless of status.

Russians are paid to volunteer, except we are finding that they are no longer paid up front. They get paid over the course of their enlistment. Why? It saves the government so much money. If you are dead, no more money. If you are severely wounded, well, sorry you did not serve out the term. No money, and commanders are ordering solders to hand over bank cards and pins before battle so they can drain any money left in their accounts.

Industry, is running out of necessities. So they are shutting down shifts and closing the plant on Wednesday to give people an extra day off… without pay.

Russian banks report that 13% of all business loans are considered compromised, i.e. not being paid fully, properly or on time. 26% of all loans are listed in the same condition. One industry CEO described the growth rate for the company as negative, but still as growth. People who report bad news find windows very tempting to jump from, or is that pushed? So, we can assume that the numbers reported are worse than they seem and more than they expect.

Ukraine

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We started to talk about the Ukraine war.

First a few facts.
The Russian military has not changed their strategies since the last Crimean war 1853-56.
All frontal assault and what they call meat charges. Put as many bodies in harms way and hope they cross the distance and kill the other side.
This was last seen in Iran Iraq war where Iran tried to kill Iraq.
Also, WWI in the trench warfare
It did not work then, and it will not work now.

Only now, before being sent into the attack, Russian are order to hand over their bank cards with pin, so the command staff can then transfer out any money the recruit would have in the bank, when they are killed. Things are that despicable. The officers know most if not all will die so they might as well make some money off the meat attack.

Russia may have lost some 1.4 million people killed or wounded sufficiently to never go back to the frontline. We know this as we have seen video captures of Russian troops on literal tree branches for crutches hobbling to the front. It is not pretty.

Russia used to have stockpiles of weapons. Literally, what do you do with old tanks, carriers, artillery etc? America has the same sort of stockpile in Arizona for planes. You can see it in Google Earth. Literally thousands of old planes left to rot in the desert. Russian depots are well known and wildly considered their class “C” reserves. Class A are the young troops, 18–30 years of age, just finished training, young fit and fully capable of using everything involved. Class B are those who are older 30-50. Out of shape but many still good to go. Anyone older, i.e. us, is class c. The good thing is these soldiers are trained on using older weapons systems so they need little training to use their old tanks. The problem is, in the last 10-20-30-50 years technology has improved, and older tanks do not survive modern fighting. Well, the Russian is using T34, last seen in WWII against the Nazi. Fitting perhaps as Russian propaganda says they are still fighting Nazis in Ukraine.

The depots, grown since the end of WWII were huge. It was seen as one of the deterrences for NATO as Russia did not have a lot of new tanks, they just had a lot of tanks. So much so, that this was a consideration for any war with Russia.

The last 4 years have seen those stockpiles shrink and disappear. Again, this is seen on things like Google Earth or any of the many YouTube channels covering things from the Ukraine side.

Money, sanctions are working in that you have a lot of things to burn through. You have a lot of supplies from Iran, China, North Korea. Etc. It takes time. Hence, why they shadow fleet was so important. It earned solid foreign money to pay for such supplies.

Ukraine, gets things on credit. Russia has to pay cash for things.
The Ukes know this and hit place where they know Russia will have a hard time to replace like their oil production facilities. They don’t have to destroy the place. Just knock it offline for a while and wait, once repairs are done, hit it again. The Ukes are getting very good at this after 4 years.

That leaves us the main consideration, the battlefront. Russia is by no means out of the war. They can send meat waves forward. Such that it becomes the question of: do I have enough bullets to kill as many men coming forward?
Treating a human life as a joke is never funny but the question still stands.

Here is what is new. The Ukes are short on man power so some extent. They have a smaller army but are getting real volunteers. IE ex combat troops from around the world show up at the airport to enlist. Many people from Uke communities in Canada send soldiers and recruits. Ex armed forces and pilots show up and form units.

The war however has a new element. Drones, both in the air and on the ground. A war drone cost anywhere from $300 to $10 000. The cheaper they are, the more they are there to suicide on tanks and vehicles or a man. All they have to do is carry bomb and poof you have a dead tank or worse a dead man. What to send for Christmas? Shotguns, they use fléchette round to hit the control cables and hopefully take out the drone as it is coming in to kill you…

You put a thousand of those in front of a meat wave attack, and it leaves a field of hamburger.

So where is this war? It’s been 4 years. Russian op plan said to surround Kyiv on Day 1 and invade Moldavia on day 3. Instead, they have gain only so much territory as they have lost. What people forget is that Ukes invaded Russian territory in the first year and are still sitting there.

So the meat grinder continues to operate. People keep dying. Russia keeps bringing in new people to die for them. The war is at a stalemate. Who can bleed the most? Who can afford to throw a generation of men? If you look at post WWII recovery and the gap with all the mean dying in the war, or post Afghanistan you will see the same gap in genders.

But all is not lost, Russia has just raised the tax on Vodka. 25% big deal you think. Let me explain. In Russia, the average age of death for men is like 60 before Ukraine happened. Why? They drink themselves to death very early. Drinking is their copping mechanism. Fine. So they raised the taxes why? Because they are running out of money and do this in desperation. If men cannot get booze, they will drink antifreeze or colon or anything that might have alcohol in it. So raising the price makes such measure more likely than not.

State of Canadian Elections to come this year

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I think the key here is to look at the news

Trudeau in Ukraine today

Trudeau to chair G7

Trudeau stands up to Trump

If he had not already said he would step down, I think he would run again.

All of these headlines and what do we hear from Pierre Poutine? He gets glowing reviews on right wing blogs, Jordan Peterson, thinks he is great. Trump loves the man. In other words he is talking to the choir not the  Canadian public.

Next in the news, NDP is falling in the polls. They may not even be ready to fight a snap election in March, and we are going to the polls in April or early May. Jagmeet is even lower in the polls then his party, rip up agreements and see what it gets you…  I like the man but his politics suck. As the liberals head to more centrist positions, the NDP should rush to fill the gap only they are getting no bounce.  People who normally support the NDP are going bipolar, either to the right and the conservatives or to the liberals. Those that go right will fall back to the liberals anyway. Note that the poll was straight numbers and did not include the hidden Liberal advantage. They normally get higher returns when people actually vote then what people will say they will vote for. To an alarming degree this could amount to 3-4 percent of the vote total. So, a tie in the poll, would in fact, say the liberals are leading with Carney as the head.

As much as I like Jagmeet and equally as much as I dislike Poilievre, I would still vote liberal today. The NDP has never missed a chance to miss their chance. The Jack Layton, orange wave was not something anyone said was coming. It just happened.  Pierre Poutine is a slimy person. He comes off as used car salesman only one, used car salesmen know give them a bad name. Have you listened to his interviews with creepy right wing news outlets? He get Trump like fawning with Trump-like questions. Yet tell them how unreliable mainstream journalists are?  I think that is a good way to win the vote. Going to the extreme right wing and telling them talking points they only dream about but have no traction in the middle of the road might work in American politics, but will it work in Canada? We are better educated and better informed then an average American. Talking to the right-wing media leaves a bad taste in my mouth and people who are not ideologically bound to his type of smarm. Now that the election is coming due people who normally do not follow politics, start to watch. With the threats from Trump, people are concerned to see what is happening. They see a clear difference between Trudeau and Mr. Poutine. That usually shows up in the polls at first then in the vote count later. 

The NDP is dropping

The Conservatives peaked too soon and are now in free fall in the polls. They dropped 10 points just on Trudeau stepping down. And another 10 with Trump’s threats. It is all fun and games to vote in the right wing lunatic to “own” the libs. But when it is your @$$ on the line, with Trump’s many threats. The people think first about protecting what is theirs and leave “ownings” to another  day.

Canada is not for sale? Or is it?

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Donald Trump wants Canada to be the 51st state. When told Canada is not for sale, he persists. Everything is for sale at the right price. Reminding me of an Aslin joke during the NAFTA free trade debate years ago. You see MacDonald protecting a female Canada conservatively dressed, saying “Canada is not for sale!” The middle panel is Laurier protecting another female personification of Canada saying the same thing. The third and last panel, you see Brian Mulroney dressed as a pimp, slappy the girls’ ass, dressed in a mini skirt and heavy makeup. Saying to her, “get busy!”
Or perhaps this joke would explain the matter, a man says to a woman if she will sleep with him for $10.
“Certainly not.”
“Well would you sleep with me for a million dollars?”
“I might,” she agrees.
“Well, what about for $50?”
“What kind of girl do you think I am sir?”
“We have already determined that, we are merely haggling over the price…”

So The Donald want to secure a legacy for posterity. He wants to add his name to the largest territorial grab in US history by acquiring Canada. So, since everything is for sale, in his mind, we are just arguing the price.

Fine. Let’s argue the price.
1) Canada is 10 provinces and 3 territories. All of which would need to be states. As well, the national capital region around Ottawa, (So far from Heaven so close to Hull.) would need to make a newly minted American State! And since it would be unfair for Ottawa to get it without Washington DC, the Donald would need to add 15 stars on his flag.
2) Since we have universal Health care up here, we would need that to be added to their bill of rights that Health care is a right and must be paid for by the state. All 65 states.
3) Since we regulate fire arms very heavily up here, they would need to rewrite their 2nd amendment to remove that right to wife beating “bare arms” (sic)
That would be the changes required before we can even start to negotiate.
Once you put this out to The Donald, you sit back and wait. Every time he makes reference to Canada becoming the 51 state, simply say 51-65 state! So we can send 30 new Democratic Senators and near tell 56 House members to Washington! Since even the most Canadian right-winger have more in common with Democrats then Republicans, the House, and Senate would swing to the Dems like forever.
Or you can reply to his so-called “Offer”, that is good he has agreed to begin the repeal of the 2nd amendment.
Make the price too high and hold out for him to pony up. We have left room for further price increases if he ever could meet just those 3 demands to START negotiations with him.
See, Donald Trump is a bully. He has shown the American experiment to have failed. The rules for law and order do not work there. The rules of impeachment or having a high court, to begin with, are clearly not working. So merely saying “no,” is not sufficient. However, let’s not forget the cheap sycophantic response by Danielle Smith to rush to kneel before him. Or the opportunistic “call an election to deal with this threat” Doug Ford.
At the end of the say, just make the price too high. The Donald, despite advanced senility, understands the concept of the price being too high.

And on that subject, Donald Trump thinks people in other countries pay his tariff and not his own people. That inflation will rise uncontrollable and the economic issues that would arise with a 25% tariff! Yet, for all that. He keeps saying it. Why? Because he does not understand a single word you are saying. The price of eggs goes up? When do you think he went to buy eggs? Ever? His new byte coin had over 33 billion dollars invested in it, virtually overnight? How many eggs can you buy with a billion here and a billion there? How much inflation will erode the spending power of 33 billion? When you work out the answers to those questions, then you will see just how corrupt he is and how trying to appeal to his reason won’t work.

Canada Post Strike

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Hello once more

When last asked about the strike at Canada Post, I rather blew off the question. I assumed we would be ordered back to work immediately. So, day one, was a Friday, we would be back to work on the following Monday.

Well, we were not so ordered.
All this week, on the strike line, we all assumed we would go back by this Monday, day 11. And as of early Sunday morning, we are not going back to work yet.

I think, as did we all, including the management of the company that the government would have stepped in by now and put an end to this already. It has not happened.
Reading the mind of the government, clear something we are not very good at, we are getting some clear messages… or so we hope.
This week the Labor minister said, “we”, the government, have no plans to order us back to work.
Interesting.

The Minister of Public Service, the direct boss of Canada Post, on Thursday said a few things of note.
1) Canada post is a service company not for profit! So, all the talk of it losing money is having no impact on the government.
2) They expect that the jobs here should be good, stable jobs. IE not gig part-time crap the company wants to offer for weekend work.
3) That there is a “hands off” relationship between the government and the crown corporation.

In other words, this is your mess, the government is not stepping in to fix things this time. So, go do your job and get this fixed. Now, would be a good time to do it, yesterday even better.
Keep in mind, time waits for no man. The days of our peak period starting Nov 15, have started. Next Friday, 6 days and counting down from here, is Black Friday, the biggest online buying date around. Millions of things to be shipped and billions of dollars at stake.
So all that pressure and we see something intriguing. Well in my mind, very compelling. Something the company let slip.
A hint of panic, perhaps?

Canada post has a spokesperson who is a weasel. He is slimy piece of poo, but he does a good job of sounding genuine. (And if you can fake that, you have it made!) So, there he was on TV this weekend, giving an interview about the progress made in negotiations. He said things are going slow, too slow. The pace will have to pick up to get a deal done.

Really? Who could he be speaking to? Not the workers, we want a deal fast. Hence, why we have been in talks for over a year now. Certainly not the public, CPC has never cared what they think to begin with. The government is not listening, remember that hands off comment? So, who is he talking to? This man has never uttered a single word not already approved and crafted by management. So, I ask again who is he talking to, and what is he signalling? Where is this going? CPC has always been the one with their foot on the brakes. They have slowed this down, I assume in hopes the government would order us back to work and be done with the negotiation table. If they want to go faster, all they need to do is kick it up. For example, the company said they would have a new offer on weekend work ready for Friday morning. Nope! Afternoon? Still nothing. Friday evening? Well, here it is. 12 hours later. So, where is that speed they want to use to pick up the pace. But the fact that they are saying it, says the company mindset is shifting.

Lastly, keep in mind, most of these people do not get their bonus if they do not meet their goals. With us on strike, they will not get them. If you have to sell so many widgets to get your bonus, and you are not allowed to sell any, this might be a problem for you. When your bonus can be as much as 60-100% gain over your base salary, missing it, is really going to hurt. At CPC, this is peak time, so this is where you make or break your quota or this year, not.

So bottom line. If the government is not going to step in, we could be out for a long time. At least another week or two. I don’t see this lasting into December before the government takes action of some sort. But, we are working without a net. Our assumptions have been disproven by the sheer amount of time that we have been out. Who knows, we could still be out in December at this rate. Someone will have to blink. It won’t be the workers, it seems it won’t be the government. That leave the company and the comment by the spokesperson, says they are blinking rather hard. They are still getting paid, while we walk the line. When they stop getting paid things like their bonus. The shoe is now on their foot, and they do not like that nearly as much.

Note from the strike line
Dec 2, 2024

So if you were following the news, you may have seen that Nov 27, last Wednesday, all negotiations were called off. The parties were sent to their room and there was no money to pay for food!

The problem with the Canada Post strike lies with a single factor. How can that be you might ask? Surely there are a plenitude of issues? Yes, there are. However, you have one, make-or-break issue. I will explain. The company has a wage offer of 12% compared to a wage demand by the union of 24%. If you take the middle ground of 18%, you would see that is also the average wage increase for workers in the transportation sector. So, as you can see the two sides are not that far apart.

Yet, over the week, prior to the cancellation of negotiations, all they talked about was weekend work. How hard would that to be, to find common ground. Well, it was nigh impossible. Why?

Canada Post has a new method of delivery. They call it SSD, Separate Sort and Delivery. Basically, one person, sorts the mail and 11 people delivery it. This saves the company about an hour per person. So it is a significant cost decrease nearing 12%. So they want it. The union does not. So they challenged the company in court and lost. So now they need to do something at the bargaining table. The company, needed the savings and have won the case already, says “NO”.

So the two are just talking at each other. The real problem is the union cannot come back and expect ratification without significant changes to the SSD model. Any bargain struck must be ratified by the members, and they will not get ratification without it.

So, the union is also stuck in a no win situation with the workers.
Toronto, the largest local will not accept anything less than that! And where Toronto goes, so too goest the rest of the country.

So the company will not seriously negotiate without the union agreeing to SSD. The union cannot seriously negotiate without significant changes to SSD. So, like two children squabbling, they want big daddy government to step in and show who is their favorite child. Because no matter who the government picks, the government looks the fool.

So. step back to the start of the strike! Where we all thought, we walk out on a Friday, big daddy government orders us all back to work for Monday! We all lose one day of pay, and life goes on, the birds sing and the sun shines.

Ya right.

Train wreck. The government is not in a position to piss off the NDP and the NDP say let them negotiate. So we do. For weeks of getting nowhere.

Back to last Wednesday, the government pulls the plug.

“You have sat too long here for any good you have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go.”

Okay, maybe not those exact words but close enough.

Now, there I was on the strike line when my phone rang from Ottawa. They had just gotten the boot from the talks and there was sheer panic at Union HQ.

“We run out of money next week!” The union strike fund was meant to be a cash plaything not something they had to ever spend. Well now they do. So can they arrange for a loan on union property, they own a condo and a building. Things they buy with my union dues. There was talk of asking other unions for long term loans and even merging with another union with deeper pockets. That would go over so well with both the company and the government to see CUPW join with say the Teamsters.

However, do not think the panic was one-sided. It was not. The company is losing out on 1 million parcels per day. However, much profit you assign, 20-30-40$ each shows how much they lost each day. 20 million per day by 15 days is 300 million. This is the period where the company makes money and to wit, the endless vice presidents make their bonuses. No money, no honey. But, how could I possibly know this to be true? After all, I sit on the strike line, well stand around and mumble to myself in the cold, damp cold by the way, very fucking damp cold… I digress.

So, how do I know the panic is on both side? There are two incidents you may have heard. The first, at the negotiations table, the company rep threatened to only use gig workers on the weekends. Oh, really? And all those people blocking your gates are going to allow it? It was made as a threat and everyone knew it. So the Mediator sent everyone home. The second incident was when the company started to lay people off. Which is, incidentally illegal. But it sounds scary. The company is laying off the temporary workers. But not all of them, just those who have not complete 480 hours, which is the threshold to join the union. Since they are not part of the union yet, they can be laid off. Which means they get unemployment. While the rest of work the line. But it sure does sound scary.

So why the threats? Because, while we workers are on the strike line, not getting paid, the company is not making any money. When your bonus is based on making money and can amount to 50% of your salary, that means all those we left inside, are working at half pay. When they get paid, as our President does, 500K in salary and another 500K in bonus if he meets goals. Without us working, he won’t be making that bonus. A bad Christmas could wreck your bonus for the whole year. So, we want to get paid, and so do they. But, big daddy government has sent us all to bed without supper.

Sunday, we get word that there is a new proposal on the deck. Not for us mind you, it was sent to the mediator to get them to start new talks. So, I read that this morning and was still depressed. That is until I read one line of the new report. That CPC hoped that there proposal was satisfactory to the Minister with an eye to ratification.

OMG! Half the problem is removing all the clutter and getting to the heart of this strike. Showing both sides where the real concern is and what has to be done here. The company has to bend so that the union can get their contract ratified by the members. Once that is accomplished the rest can be solved in a matter of hours.

So far, in this strike I have batted a thousand. Oh wait, read that backward. Zero. I have gotten nothing right. So, your millage may vary here. I think, that there is a hint of a dawn in the talks and the strike will be resolved soon. Or so I may be just wishful thinking.

I cashed my strike pay. Woo hoo. $56.20 per day! I have enough money in the account to pay the rent for three months. December, January and February, so I am safe enough. I have credit, credit cards and savings etc. So I am not worried… well just a little in any case. But the rest on the strike line? So many of them are living pay to pay. Thursday, is the last pay from CPC. 4 days of pay is not a lot. Strike pay is even less. Even if we start back to work today, the next time we get paid will be in a month. It’s going to be a silent Christmas this year for many of those on the line.

The most painful things to happen to a man? The first is they go into the woods and take a piss in winter. Someone forgot to pull up a bear trap. Well, the warm water caused that trap to snap on the man’s private. Now, you think to yourself, that has got to be the most painful thing to happen to a man. A bear trap slamming into your privates. But it is not. See, when the trap slammed shut on the man, he went running for help. In that running away, the worst pain a man could feel happens. When said man running with a bear trapped slammed on his privates hits the end of the line, as the bear trap is always anchored into the ground… ouch!

A lot of people on the line still have not yet hit the end of their line.
Next pay won’t be before January. Strike pay won’t pay for Christmas gifts. A lot of postal families are going to be hurting and the hurting now is going to get a lot worse before this is over.

Hopefully sooner than later.

Date line December 4

The union in much delayed, stunned silence, finally answered Canada Post. At the mediators’ insistence, they narrowed things down to 4 items. The first was pension. We will still be on strike next year if they touch that. Think third rail and everyone knows it. Second, they want a commitment for exploring other avenues of service. The main one; is like to say your grandmother is home alone. The mailman would knock on her door each day and say “hello”. Then the system would send you a text saying she was fine at such a time. If there was no one home, it would send you another text. So you would know to drop bye and make sure she is fine. This is a no-brainer. All CPC has to do is set up a committee and be done with it all. Number three would be salary. They say 12, we say 24, let’s split the difference at 18 where they will end up at soon enough.

So, that is three out of four things. The fourth is the big baddy. The sticking point of all this. Separate Sort and Deliver. (SSD). The do or die. Well, so they thought. Seems dying is now an option. Remember above the Minister instructions about ratification? Well, they need something to bring home. We started out demanding it go the way of the Do-do and begone from our hallowed halls. Well, the water with the wine, and the need to save face, they now want more time to do circulars. So like an extra 15 mins and we are done? Seems so.

Okay then, easy-peasy and we are done right? Well, not quite there yet. Seems the Minister also ordered that no new negotiations will happen until the mediator is all be certain the two sides will come to an agreement. That means no new negotiations until a deal is all but certain.

A side note here, this is like in the 60tys we had Kremlin watchers. They would see how everyone from the Politburo was standing on ceremony days to see who was gaining favor and who was losing it. Who was making book and who was not. This is the same sort of thing. You hear things and have to wait a bit before you understand them. The minister was not going to sit the parties back in a room until they have a deal. Then they will walk out, shake hands and we all can go back to work. When? I am still thinking next week, and I am also hoping that is to be the case cause walking in a line in the cold is not fun. And mostly boring to do. Worse, to only make $56.20 per day. Not fun. Oh goody, it is snowing outside, so tomorrow should be even more fun to walk in a winter wonderland.

Today, to keep up moral, they made hotdogs. It was so cold, I started to eat one end and by the time I reach the end of the dog, it was frozen over.

Dateline Dec 9
Day 25 of being out in the cold
New proposal from the union.
It had wage demands of 19%. Now if you have been following thus far, we were at 24% to the company’s 12%. So a wage drop of 5% is a significant change. As the two sides get closer to a deal, the price has to drop. I have said it before, the two would settle on the industry standard of 18. So as they circle that magic number, they are getting very close.
Also, the radio silence from both sides, order by the mediator to stop negotiating in media, since they are not negotiating in any case, should be a clue. When they are feeding their side to reporters, they are trying to get a message to the other side by getting interest groups on their side. So when they go silent, they are in serious talks. I think as the numbers circle closer together, the two sides are going to strike a bargain this week. I know, I have said that like every week thus far, but while I am off on timing I think I am right on everything else.
Or so I would like to think.

Dateline Dec 11, 2024

The union recent proposal was dismissed by the Post Office as driving the two sides further apart. Yet, contained within was a price point drop of 5% off the wage demand. What is going, and why is Canada Post saying something rather counterintuitive?

First, this week, for the first time, both parties met. This is something the Minister of Labor has ordered not to happen unless there was a high likelihood of success. They talked about the new proposal and included was the wage drop. Now in Negotiations, there are two tables, the first, the dollar table, has only two things, wage increase and pensions. Things that will cost the parties’ money. The other table has everything else. So if table 2 costs them a lot of money like extra days off or more cost for insurance, they naturally will deduct it from what they can offer on table 1. So, when they start to talk issues of table one, they are All But Done. But spokesperson for the company have come out to condemn the proposal and say how horrible it is. It has driven the two sides further apart. Well, where is that coming from?
Canada Post had a simple strategy, go on strike/lockout, get the government to order everyone back to work and binding arbitration and boom, they can let the arbitration deal with itself. See in such matters, the arbiter usually tends to leave the contract language up to the company but favors the workers on money issues. Oh, and it typically takes a few years to get a judgement. Well, that is not how things worked out.
The government, both the Minister of Labor and of Service, who is their real boss, are all over this. They want these file solved. So they are pushing the company to solve the problem. Now, an arms length relationship exists. So, the Minister is not on the phone daily, or even hourly. Nope. It is the deputy Minister calling every 45 minutes to get a status update. Which sounds annoying, it is even worse when they actually are doing it. Hence, pressure. So, when your boss, is not calling, but his deputy is, get the message, we need a solution, NOW. Add in the clear ominous threat. This presents a toddler, kicking and screaming, being dragged to the table to negotiate. It also means they do not want to go, they do not want to do this, they do not want to have any language changes. What they want, that ship has already sailed. What remains is the being catty and smarmy remarks, “We are so disappointed, we are further apart,” WAN, WAN, WAN.
Oh wait, the minister is calling again to see where we are on what page, what line of the counteroffer and what we are trying to reply with and why are we not agreeing and what we are proposing instead.
So, as much as they do not want to go back to the table, and as much as they hate to make such a deal, they really are not in charge. The pressure is on to get this deal done.
We are close, otherwise, the mediator would not bring the parties together and the union would not have lowered the wage demand. One or two more exchanges, and we should be done. I am hoping to return to work on Monday. I, also thought that we should return on Monday 4 weeks ago with binding arbitration, so my batting average is still 100!
All wrong.

The Donald Won Again

poetoftruth Uncategorized , , , ,

So, The Donald won again. What are we to make of this? There is a surprising among of things to unpack from this. Let’s start with the good news.

In 4 more years, no matter what happens, we will never have to listen to him run for office, any office again. Next, quoting no less than Karl Marx’s, History repeats itself, the first time as a tragedy and the second as a farce. Here comes the farce. The last thing, as his federal charges will be stemmed, his state charges will go on. So the thought that in 4 years he will leave office and play a new roll, state inmate; from President to prisoner all in one afternoon, coming soon.

So how did he win in the first place? If you listen closely, all the reasons are based on the democratic performance or their policy or lack there of. They should have pushed more on housing and less on abortion. They should have more ads on the economy and less on the January insurrection. That sort of thing. And while all those arguments are well articulated and well researched and argued, they are trying to explain the wrong event. DJT did not win because intellectuals jump ship to support him. He won because he got the male vote. White, black and Hispanics, all sided with him. Women failed to come out to support their own rights or Harris. In the end the Trump coalition was not made up of any group. Just a lot of low information, low engaged and lower intelligence people casting their vote for who is going to be the guy in charge.

So, the funny thing is, no matter what Trump does over the next 4 years, at any time, statistically speaking, 51% of his victims, are people who voted for him to do just that. In other words, you cannot rape the willing. And Trump would never rape anyone…
What?
Found civilly liable several times for rape? Accused, more so, of other vile acts?
And now he all he does is talk about penis envy for some golfer?

But it gets better. So the Arab associations, angered at Biden told their members to vote for Trump. Fair enough. Trump, whose sole plan for peace is to provide Israel with everything it wants in order to get the job done. Fine by me. But when Israel is bombing the Middle East to ruins, please don’t complain. You voted for this policy. You told people to support Donald Trump and did so knowing this was his policy.

Even Nancy Pelosi has no one to blame but herself. She engineered the downfall of Biden. Yes she did. So the result? Is her doing. Good job Nancy.

So in the end, just how did Donald J. Trump get re-elected? He has faced the ballot three times, won twice and lost once. The three people who opposed him, had for the most part the same policies, same rhetoric. All three would have made better Presidents then Trump. A;; three are better qualified and all three do not show signs of dementia that he has done so increasingly over the last few years. So was there anything different between the elections? I think there is one thing. It’s a sexist idea but it also fits. Low information voters are not voting on policy. They are voting with their gut. Which is them women do not belong in the White House. I know, so misogynistic to say. But it is the only answer that accounts for all the males running to Trump. All the uninformed people did not suddenly decide to read reams of policy documents. They took a look at who was running and said, nah to the female and pulled the lever for Trump.

In the end, I would rather think America is a sexist place then think they are inherently fascist. YMMV

Laugh at chilli-willi

poetoftruth Uncategorized
New Filings in DeCastro Ironton Appeal

Another great post on this insane legal case.

New evidence?
chilli and his legal team are idiots
they think saying; some guy, somewhere said something is testimonial evidence
they think that there is a legal standard that say the world must live on YT time and not the clock on the wall, that somehow a clock in Cali, is more legally relevant then a clock on the wall in an office he was told to get out of, told it was closed and told he would be arrested for trespass….
Lawyers cannot predict the outcome of a trial. I am not a lawyer, so here goes:

chilli-willi and his legal team
Will dream, dream, dream
But wait
Things aren’t what they seem
chilli is a has-been
And no matter how hard he dreams
Never will a court lean
Into his pie of lemon meringue cream

So bounce, bounce, bounce
Watch his appeal flounce
Yet again he is trounced
By real efforts, measured merly in an ounce
This cat failed again to pounce
Better to give up, renounce
End his time waste and denounce
Or more sad news will be announced

So after he files his paperwork, after he spends all his money, the court’s answer will be denied.

Turtle boy is toast

poetoftruth Uncategorized

Turtleboy Addresses Arrest
Great place for infor!

Quote
Addressing the dispatcher who illegally obtained license plate information for him, Kearney bragged that she was one of dozens of contacts who provided him with “confidential information” in the past.
End quote

Thanks for pleading guilty to the charge of conspiracy. That 10 years in prison for you.

One of his many charges is having conspired with the dispatcher to get home addresses by using people licenses.

This is why any lawyer will tell you first thing, “Shut UP!!!!” But no one tell TB, the more he talks, the easier it is going to be to send him to jail.

Quote
Addressing the protection order preventing him from contacting witnesses in the case, Kearney insulted his court appointed attorney, John Reynolds, and pledged that his new defense attorneys would be more aggressive and have the orders removed.
End quote

Is this the magic wand defense or is it the “Nope” defense? There is no judge in the USA who will remove that order. In fact, I would go so far to say, no judge in the world who is under the Common Law heritage would do that. But for TB they might make an exception?

Quote
He then spent time attacking Peggy O’Keefe, mother of murder victim John O’Keefe, claiming that she had a horrible life due to “karma.”
End quote

If she is one of the victims of his many charges, he just violated parole. You are not allowed to communicate with any victim, thus publishing a YT video qualifies, same as any other social media post.


He is going to love jail. The other inmates are just going to love his entitled attitude and behavior!

But wait! The FBI will step in and save him… Just like chilli’s court of appeal, appeal, will save him as well…
Won’t happen.

Turtle boy is Turtle soup!

poetoftruth Uncategorized
Peter Takes Victory Lap

Jim had a Great blog and this is just one of them!

There are two ways this can go if he is found guilty. Sentencing can be concurrent or consecutively.
If he is found guilt on 10 charges and sentenced to 10 years in jail each, he can serve them concurrently for a total of ten years or consecutively for a total of 100 years.
Don’t piss them off…
Too late, the DA looks pissed!

So is there a deal to be made? It is too soon to say. First they want to dig into his computer and if they find evidence of other crimes, then he is a goner. Such as conspiracy or child porn. Then his life is over as a free man.
Next they will offer him a plea deal. but there is no way he walks. He will get a deal but with significant time inside. 10 years? maybe more. But that is better then 200.

Next, lets say they find something that can harm Karen Read. Conspiracy to obstruct justice or conspiracy to tamper with witnesses. They may then turn around and offer him a deal to testify against the rest… That a stretch, If they can link in her brother into this, they would much rather give the brother the deal for providing the quid in this quid pro quo then give the deal to TB and put the brother inside. The brother could get a walk if he did indeed provide the vehicle as payment for harassment provided he flips on his sis and TB

All of this is speculation. The only thing that is evident and clear, right now, is TB is in a world of hurt and listening to him as he defiantly spoke to news reporters yesterday he does not even know how deep in it he fell. But he is going to get some cash, other people’s cash and get right back on that same hobby horse that got him into this mess to start with.

When the ancient Greeks spoke of Hubris, they said Zeus would toss a lightning bolt on your @$$ to teach you a lesson. This is what we are seeing. TB is so far gone into his world of delusion, he is believing his own press releases. He thinks he can beat these charges. He thinks he can keep on doing what he is doing, just like chill, who keeps filling paperwork with the courts to waste people’s time. But yet never manages to get anywhere. Same thing here. TB is about to get crushed by the weight of the state upon his shoulders, and there is nothing he can do. But what is worse, there is nothing he will do, he thinks he is fine to harass as many people he wants and the shield of free speech will save him. Sorry Charlie. It doesn’t and it won’t.