I think the key here is to look at the news

Trudeau in Ukraine today

Trudeau to chair G7

Trudeau stands up to Trump

If he had not already said he would step down, I think he would run again.

All of these headlines and what do we hear from Pierre Poutine? He gets glowing reviews on right wing blogs, Jordan Peterson, thinks he is great. Trump loves the man. In other words he is talking to the choir not the  Canadian public.

Next in the news, NDP is falling in the polls. They may not even be ready to fight a snap election in March, and we are going to the polls in April or early May. Jagmeet is even lower in the polls then his party, rip up agreements and see what it gets you…  I like the man but his politics suck. As the liberals head to more centrist positions, the NDP should rush to fill the gap only they are getting no bounce.  People who normally support the NDP are going bipolar, either to the right and the conservatives or to the liberals. Those that go right will fall back to the liberals anyway. Note that the poll was straight numbers and did not include the hidden Liberal advantage. They normally get higher returns when people actually vote then what people will say they will vote for. To an alarming degree this could amount to 3-4 percent of the vote total. So, a tie in the poll, would in fact, say the liberals are leading with Carney as the head.

As much as I like Jagmeet and equally as much as I dislike Poilievre, I would still vote liberal today. The NDP has never missed a chance to miss their chance. The Jack Layton, orange wave was not something anyone said was coming. It just happened.  Pierre Poutine is a slimy person. He comes off as used car salesman only one, used car salesmen know give them a bad name. Have you listened to his interviews with creepy right wing news outlets? He get Trump like fawning with Trump-like questions. Yet tell them how unreliable mainstream journalists are?  I think that is a good way to win the vote. Going to the extreme right wing and telling them talking points they only dream about but have no traction in the middle of the road might work in American politics, but will it work in Canada? We are better educated and better informed then an average American. Talking to the right-wing media leaves a bad taste in my mouth and people who are not ideologically bound to his type of smarm. Now that the election is coming due people who normally do not follow politics, start to watch. With the threats from Trump, people are concerned to see what is happening. They see a clear difference between Trudeau and Mr. Poutine. That usually shows up in the polls at first then in the vote count later. 

The NDP is dropping

The Conservatives peaked too soon and are now in free fall in the polls. They dropped 10 points just on Trudeau stepping down. And another 10 with Trump’s threats. It is all fun and games to vote in the right wing lunatic to “own” the libs. But when it is your @$$ on the line, with Trump’s many threats. The people think first about protecting what is theirs and leave “ownings” to another  day.