politics

Ukraine Part 3

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When the war broke out, the two sides were not even close to being equal. In terms of machines, tanks, APC, Artillery, the Russians has a ten to one advantage. Now, the Russians have no machines to use and are sending in men on horses. Shades of war long ago. The Ukes have a problem with this as they really do not like killing innocent horses. So, instead, they drop munitions nearby to scare the horse and hopefully unseat the rider. Once separated, they then target the man and let the horse run free to be collected later by one side or the other.

There are no replacements coming in from outside as no one will sell to Russia and inside they do not have enough parts to make new ones. They used to be able to refurbish the battle damaged but now even that is too hard.

You may have heard about the death of two pilots when their ejector seat malfunctioned and triggered while stationed inside a hanger. The explosion sent both men through the roof, killing them on contact. The equipment is not designed for sustained combat like they are using it for. What they can repair is iffy at best. At worst, deadly.

Manpower. Russi has so many men under arms, so many troops and so many solders that in just sheer numbers they should have won. Well, they might be. Any battle where the causalties are under four to one, better five to one: for ever one Uke hurt or killed, they had better have killed or injured four or five Russians.

Even the Chechens are running out of men to send. Remember this blood bath from a few years ago? Well anyone who could fight was drafted into this war effort and like the rest of Russia, they are tapped out of anyone more to send.

On the opposite side, the Uke have equipment funneling in from Europe and NATO. They have better tech and better intelligence. Many a times, you have manufacturers onside offering to test this system or that bomb for free, all in service of winning the war but they want to get as much information as they can to better the weapons system or use it for selling to other Western governments. Right now, they are using drones and bots to guard from the sky and on the ground. Using heat seeing and inferred veiwing, the machines are killing Russians who enter their killing field. It is entirely possible that many a man from Russia having entered into the machine’s kill range are dying without knowing their killer is nothing but a bot.

Europe and USA emptied out all their old hardware in droves and shipped it to Ukraine. Now with no strategic reserves left, they are ramping up their war effort in factories all over the west to get their strategic reserves back up to normal and send even more to Ukraine.

Ukes are not getting replacements in the numbers they need but they are not losing as many men either. What trickles in from the West are men and women there to take up arms to defend Ukraine. They are committed to the cause unlike Russia who send mercenaries and prisoners to die at the front.

As the war drags on, there is a stalemate on the front line. Russia will attack with overwhelming men. One battle, had 170 000 men on the Russian side, heading towards a line held by less than 10K! So the Ukes retreat until more troops arrive. The other weapons systems, from artillery to drones to jets make Russia pay for every step they take. But with the willingness to slaughter a generation, they keep sending men forward and the Uke keep killing them. They are getting very good at killing them.

Demographics will take 100 years or longer to repair the damage done in 4 years of war to the male population. Russia’s population is 143 million people. NATO combined has a billion people including 40 million Ukes. Something like a seven to one advanatage in just simple population. Was injuries and death will only effect the Ukes and the rest of the NATO countries can keep doing what they have been doing before, during and after this war is over.

Economics, the economy may be so damaged that it may not recover. Post war, there will be no men to work so they have to import men from other countries. The women will naturally marry what is available, not bother to try to find a suitable Russian male as there are none. So they try to sell oil but no money for capital to repair the many step process before it gets to the port, let alone to a new market. People will have looked for other suppliers to get their oil and might be reluctant to seek a new arrangement at Russia is unreliable.

Government spending and borrowing to feed the war effort may take generations before they can lower taxes to anythung pre war. And even then that is iffy.

You may have seen the recent attack on Kyve using hypersonic weapons. This was seen as a warning to the west. Yes, ya sure. I often take a sledge hammer to hit a peanut. The Ukes have nothing that would stop such a weapon. The Americans might but they are not speaking about it. You use such weapons for a reason not to send anyone a message. Their use was a simple message, not of strength but of weakness and how little there is left to fight with. Russia did not use such a weapon to say watch out, they used it because the stock of bombs was gone and all they had left was this.

Ukraine

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We started to talk about the Ukraine war.

First a few facts.
The Russian military has not changed their strategies since the last Crimean war 1853-56.
All frontal assault and what they call meat charges. Put as many bodies in harms way and hope they cross the distance and kill the other side.
This was last seen in Iran Iraq war where Iran tried to kill Iraq.
Also, WWI in the trench warfare
It did not work then, and it will not work now.

Only now, before being sent into the attack, Russian are order to hand over their bank cards with pin, so the command staff can then transfer out any money the recruit would have in the bank, when they are killed. Things are that despicable. The officers know most if not all will die so they might as well make some money off the meat attack.

Russia may have lost some 1.4 million people killed or wounded sufficiently to never go back to the frontline. We know this as we have seen video captures of Russian troops on literal tree branches for crutches hobbling to the front. It is not pretty.

Russia used to have stockpiles of weapons. Literally, what do you do with old tanks, carriers, artillery etc? America has the same sort of stockpile in Arizona for planes. You can see it in Google Earth. Literally thousands of old planes left to rot in the desert. Russian depots are well known and wildly considered their class “C” reserves. Class A are the young troops, 18–30 years of age, just finished training, young fit and fully capable of using everything involved. Class B are those who are older 30-50. Out of shape but many still good to go. Anyone older, i.e. us, is class c. The good thing is these soldiers are trained on using older weapons systems so they need little training to use their old tanks. The problem is, in the last 10-20-30-50 years technology has improved, and older tanks do not survive modern fighting. Well, the Russian is using T34, last seen in WWII against the Nazi. Fitting perhaps as Russian propaganda says they are still fighting Nazis in Ukraine.

The depots, grown since the end of WWII were huge. It was seen as one of the deterrences for NATO as Russia did not have a lot of new tanks, they just had a lot of tanks. So much so, that this was a consideration for any war with Russia.

The last 4 years have seen those stockpiles shrink and disappear. Again, this is seen on things like Google Earth or any of the many YouTube channels covering things from the Ukraine side.

Money, sanctions are working in that you have a lot of things to burn through. You have a lot of supplies from Iran, China, North Korea. Etc. It takes time. Hence, why they shadow fleet was so important. It earned solid foreign money to pay for such supplies.

Ukraine, gets things on credit. Russia has to pay cash for things.
The Ukes know this and hit place where they know Russia will have a hard time to replace like their oil production facilities. They don’t have to destroy the place. Just knock it offline for a while and wait, once repairs are done, hit it again. The Ukes are getting very good at this after 4 years.

That leaves us the main consideration, the battlefront. Russia is by no means out of the war. They can send meat waves forward. Such that it becomes the question of: do I have enough bullets to kill as many men coming forward?
Treating a human life as a joke is never funny but the question still stands.

Here is what is new. The Ukes are short on man power so some extent. They have a smaller army but are getting real volunteers. IE ex combat troops from around the world show up at the airport to enlist. Many people from Uke communities in Canada send soldiers and recruits. Ex armed forces and pilots show up and form units.

The war however has a new element. Drones, both in the air and on the ground. A war drone cost anywhere from $300 to $10 000. The cheaper they are, the more they are there to suicide on tanks and vehicles or a man. All they have to do is carry bomb and poof you have a dead tank or worse a dead man. What to send for Christmas? Shotguns, they use fléchette round to hit the control cables and hopefully take out the drone as it is coming in to kill you…

You put a thousand of those in front of a meat wave attack, and it leaves a field of hamburger.

So where is this war? It’s been 4 years. Russian op plan said to surround Kyiv on Day 1 and invade Moldavia on day 3. Instead, they have gain only so much territory as they have lost. What people forget is that Ukes invaded Russian territory in the first year and are still sitting there.

So the meat grinder continues to operate. People keep dying. Russia keeps bringing in new people to die for them. The war is at a stalemate. Who can bleed the most? Who can afford to throw a generation of men? If you look at post WWII recovery and the gap with all the mean dying in the war, or post Afghanistan you will see the same gap in genders.

But all is not lost, Russia has just raised the tax on Vodka. 25% big deal you think. Let me explain. In Russia, the average age of death for men is like 60 before Ukraine happened. Why? They drink themselves to death very early. Drinking is their copping mechanism. Fine. So they raised the taxes why? Because they are running out of money and do this in desperation. If men cannot get booze, they will drink antifreeze or colon or anything that might have alcohol in it. So raising the price makes such measure more likely than not.

Hockey time? Are you serious?

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Only in Canada would they change the debate time for a national election due to a Hockey game. Tell me again how serious we should be taking this election? This merely proves one thing, what a silly country we are to begin with. A Hockey game? Bien Oui c’est la jeu du Canada!

We might have a trade war to fight, dealing with crushing tarifs. There is western Alienation, pipeline question, and a million other issues to deal with but…. Come on, Montreal might clinch a play off spot. This election thing is over on the 28th, but we could be watching hockey until June before the playoffs are over. Get your priorities straight. A leadership debate or a play off spot?

Oh and, 1/3 of the country has already decided who they will vote for. The next 1/3 will do so this weekend just before Friday’s early voting. The last 1/3 will wait for election day. So like come on, its a near play off spot, Not a play off, not a series final for the Cup, nope, just an ordinary regular season game that Montreal might, and then again might not, win a play off spot.


So by all means, move the debate earlier. We may be in the middle of election, it may carry significant ramifications but hey, do you mind, I am watching a Hockey game.

Did I meantion, what a silly country we live in yet?

Oh and while I am ranting, You may recall that the stock market crashed last week?
You may also recall, if you are a finance nerd that the bond market also crashed.

That is not supposed to happy at the same time. You take money from the market and put it in the other market such that one drops as you take money out and the other rises as you put that money into the other….

Except it did not. How did that happen again?

Well, there is a rumour, and try proving someone made this type of phone call to international bankers, such that as they were selling off stock, it might not be wise to put money into an American bond market. In fact, it might be better to sell American stock and bonds at the same time.

Now, if only we had someone who ran a Canadian political party and worked extensively in internation affairs, such as running not just the bank of Canada but the bank of England. As opposed to a smarmy idiot who’s only job beside being a professional politician was a paper route?

Someone who can crash the American bond market with a few calls and someone who will toss your newspaper into the bushes…

My, my, my, my. So hard to decide who I am voting for…

State of Canadian Elections to come this year

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I think the key here is to look at the news

Trudeau in Ukraine today

Trudeau to chair G7

Trudeau stands up to Trump

If he had not already said he would step down, I think he would run again.

All of these headlines and what do we hear from Pierre Poutine? He gets glowing reviews on right wing blogs, Jordan Peterson, thinks he is great. Trump loves the man. In other words he is talking to the choir not the  Canadian public.

Next in the news, NDP is falling in the polls. They may not even be ready to fight a snap election in March, and we are going to the polls in April or early May. Jagmeet is even lower in the polls then his party, rip up agreements and see what it gets you…  I like the man but his politics suck. As the liberals head to more centrist positions, the NDP should rush to fill the gap only they are getting no bounce.  People who normally support the NDP are going bipolar, either to the right and the conservatives or to the liberals. Those that go right will fall back to the liberals anyway. Note that the poll was straight numbers and did not include the hidden Liberal advantage. They normally get higher returns when people actually vote then what people will say they will vote for. To an alarming degree this could amount to 3-4 percent of the vote total. So, a tie in the poll, would in fact, say the liberals are leading with Carney as the head.

As much as I like Jagmeet and equally as much as I dislike Poilievre, I would still vote liberal today. The NDP has never missed a chance to miss their chance. The Jack Layton, orange wave was not something anyone said was coming. It just happened.  Pierre Poutine is a slimy person. He comes off as used car salesman only one, used car salesmen know give them a bad name. Have you listened to his interviews with creepy right wing news outlets? He get Trump like fawning with Trump-like questions. Yet tell them how unreliable mainstream journalists are?  I think that is a good way to win the vote. Going to the extreme right wing and telling them talking points they only dream about but have no traction in the middle of the road might work in American politics, but will it work in Canada? We are better educated and better informed then an average American. Talking to the right-wing media leaves a bad taste in my mouth and people who are not ideologically bound to his type of smarm. Now that the election is coming due people who normally do not follow politics, start to watch. With the threats from Trump, people are concerned to see what is happening. They see a clear difference between Trudeau and Mr. Poutine. That usually shows up in the polls at first then in the vote count later. 

The NDP is dropping

The Conservatives peaked too soon and are now in free fall in the polls. They dropped 10 points just on Trudeau stepping down. And another 10 with Trump’s threats. It is all fun and games to vote in the right wing lunatic to “own” the libs. But when it is your @$$ on the line, with Trump’s many threats. The people think first about protecting what is theirs and leave “ownings” to another  day.

Canada is not for sale? Or is it?

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Donald Trump wants Canada to be the 51st state. When told Canada is not for sale, he persists. Everything is for sale at the right price. Reminding me of an Aslin joke during the NAFTA free trade debate years ago. You see MacDonald protecting a female Canada conservatively dressed, saying “Canada is not for sale!” The middle panel is Laurier protecting another female personification of Canada saying the same thing. The third and last panel, you see Brian Mulroney dressed as a pimp, slappy the girls’ ass, dressed in a mini skirt and heavy makeup. Saying to her, “get busy!”
Or perhaps this joke would explain the matter, a man says to a woman if she will sleep with him for $10.
“Certainly not.”
“Well would you sleep with me for a million dollars?”
“I might,” she agrees.
“Well, what about for $50?”
“What kind of girl do you think I am sir?”
“We have already determined that, we are merely haggling over the price…”

So The Donald want to secure a legacy for posterity. He wants to add his name to the largest territorial grab in US history by acquiring Canada. So, since everything is for sale, in his mind, we are just arguing the price.

Fine. Let’s argue the price.
1) Canada is 10 provinces and 3 territories. All of which would need to be states. As well, the national capital region around Ottawa, (So far from Heaven so close to Hull.) would need to make a newly minted American State! And since it would be unfair for Ottawa to get it without Washington DC, the Donald would need to add 15 stars on his flag.
2) Since we have universal Health care up here, we would need that to be added to their bill of rights that Health care is a right and must be paid for by the state. All 65 states.
3) Since we regulate fire arms very heavily up here, they would need to rewrite their 2nd amendment to remove that right to wife beating “bare arms” (sic)
That would be the changes required before we can even start to negotiate.
Once you put this out to The Donald, you sit back and wait. Every time he makes reference to Canada becoming the 51 state, simply say 51-65 state! So we can send 30 new Democratic Senators and near tell 56 House members to Washington! Since even the most Canadian right-winger have more in common with Democrats then Republicans, the House, and Senate would swing to the Dems like forever.
Or you can reply to his so-called “Offer”, that is good he has agreed to begin the repeal of the 2nd amendment.
Make the price too high and hold out for him to pony up. We have left room for further price increases if he ever could meet just those 3 demands to START negotiations with him.
See, Donald Trump is a bully. He has shown the American experiment to have failed. The rules for law and order do not work there. The rules of impeachment or having a high court, to begin with, are clearly not working. So merely saying “no,” is not sufficient. However, let’s not forget the cheap sycophantic response by Danielle Smith to rush to kneel before him. Or the opportunistic “call an election to deal with this threat” Doug Ford.
At the end of the say, just make the price too high. The Donald, despite advanced senility, understands the concept of the price being too high.

And on that subject, Donald Trump thinks people in other countries pay his tariff and not his own people. That inflation will rise uncontrollable and the economic issues that would arise with a 25% tariff! Yet, for all that. He keeps saying it. Why? Because he does not understand a single word you are saying. The price of eggs goes up? When do you think he went to buy eggs? Ever? His new byte coin had over 33 billion dollars invested in it, virtually overnight? How many eggs can you buy with a billion here and a billion there? How much inflation will erode the spending power of 33 billion? When you work out the answers to those questions, then you will see just how corrupt he is and how trying to appeal to his reason won’t work.

The Donald Won Again

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So, The Donald won again. What are we to make of this? There is a surprising among of things to unpack from this. Let’s start with the good news.

In 4 more years, no matter what happens, we will never have to listen to him run for office, any office again. Next, quoting no less than Karl Marx’s, History repeats itself, the first time as a tragedy and the second as a farce. Here comes the farce. The last thing, as his federal charges will be stemmed, his state charges will go on. So the thought that in 4 years he will leave office and play a new roll, state inmate; from President to prisoner all in one afternoon, coming soon.

So how did he win in the first place? If you listen closely, all the reasons are based on the democratic performance or their policy or lack there of. They should have pushed more on housing and less on abortion. They should have more ads on the economy and less on the January insurrection. That sort of thing. And while all those arguments are well articulated and well researched and argued, they are trying to explain the wrong event. DJT did not win because intellectuals jump ship to support him. He won because he got the male vote. White, black and Hispanics, all sided with him. Women failed to come out to support their own rights or Harris. In the end the Trump coalition was not made up of any group. Just a lot of low information, low engaged and lower intelligence people casting their vote for who is going to be the guy in charge.

So, the funny thing is, no matter what Trump does over the next 4 years, at any time, statistically speaking, 51% of his victims, are people who voted for him to do just that. In other words, you cannot rape the willing. And Trump would never rape anyone…
What?
Found civilly liable several times for rape? Accused, more so, of other vile acts?
And now he all he does is talk about penis envy for some golfer?

But it gets better. So the Arab associations, angered at Biden told their members to vote for Trump. Fair enough. Trump, whose sole plan for peace is to provide Israel with everything it wants in order to get the job done. Fine by me. But when Israel is bombing the Middle East to ruins, please don’t complain. You voted for this policy. You told people to support Donald Trump and did so knowing this was his policy.

Even Nancy Pelosi has no one to blame but herself. She engineered the downfall of Biden. Yes she did. So the result? Is her doing. Good job Nancy.

So in the end, just how did Donald J. Trump get re-elected? He has faced the ballot three times, won twice and lost once. The three people who opposed him, had for the most part the same policies, same rhetoric. All three would have made better Presidents then Trump. A;; three are better qualified and all three do not show signs of dementia that he has done so increasingly over the last few years. So was there anything different between the elections? I think there is one thing. It’s a sexist idea but it also fits. Low information voters are not voting on policy. They are voting with their gut. Which is them women do not belong in the White House. I know, so misogynistic to say. But it is the only answer that accounts for all the males running to Trump. All the uninformed people did not suddenly decide to read reams of policy documents. They took a look at who was running and said, nah to the female and pulled the lever for Trump.

In the end, I would rather think America is a sexist place then think they are inherently fascist. YMMV